Home » Unemployment figures tell two stories – what is going on?

Unemployment figures tell two stories – what is going on?

Over the past year, many unemployment indicators have pointed in a worrying direction. Nationally, unemployment has risen, the number of people in work has fallen, and there are fewer job vacancies than there have been for a long time. At the same time, however, the figures from the YTK Unemployment Fund tell a different story: the number of applications, recipients, and benefits has been declining. What is going on?

National figures appear to be declining

According to Statistics Finland, the unemployment rate has risen above 9 percent and long-term unemployment is on the rise. At the same time, according to statistics from the employment authorities, the number of job vacancies has fallen to its lowest level in almost ten years. The overall picture is bleak.

YTK figures show improvement

However, our own statistics show a different trend:

  • The number of applications has decreased
  • The number of recipients and compensation days has decreased
  • The amount of benefits paid has decreased

The duration of unemployment spells has increased, but even this growth appears to be levelling off.

What is the reason for this difference?

The difference in unemployment indicators may be due to the fact that the labor market is showing the first signs of a turnaround. The effects are first visible in the membership of unemployment funds, which is why the change is first reflected in the earnings-related unemployment benefit indicators.

On the other hand, several legislative changes came into force last year, which together may have contributed to the change in the indicators related to earnings-related unemployment benefits. It is therefore not a question of changes in the labor market, but rather of the structural impact of legislative changes on the formation of unemployment figures. For this reason, it is particularly challenging to detect the change, as the figures are no longer comparable with previous years. This interpretation is supported by the fact that respondents to our member surveys have reported feeling the effects of the legislative changes.

Hope and realism

The picture is therefore mixed. Nationally, the figures look weaker, but our own indicators give cautious cause for optimism. So there is hope, but no immediate relief is in sight.